Taranis Yield Impact™ | Common Questions and Scenarios
1. What is Taranis Yield ImpactTM?
Taranis Yield ImpactTM tells you how many bushels per acre you stand to lose from a specific detected threat if you don't do anything about it. It answers this question: "If I don't do anything about this specific threat, how many bushels per acre will it cost me at harvest?" We look at the type of threat: the species, the coverage, the severity, and even the timing of when we detected it, and translate all of that into a bushels-per-acre estimate, so you can see that there's a real economic number attached to doing nothing.
2. What do the yield estimate values mean that I can see in the Taranis Yield ImpactTM tab?
The yield estimate is our best prediction of what that field's total grain yield will be at harvest, assuming you don't act on the threats we've detected.
It takes everything we know about the field:
- Soil Characteristics
- Actual stand count from the first mission
- Historical weather data
- Forecasted weather going forward
- Previous threats detected
- Current yield impact numbers
All of this is incorporated into a single bushels-per-acre estimate. Think of it as a snapshot of the field’s expected performance at that moment in the season.
3. What goes into the yield estimate? How are you coming up with that number?
The estimate is powered by DSSAT, a widely used crop phenological model in agriculture.
DSSAT starts with a regional baseline model. From there, we layer in:
- Field-specific soil data
- Actual stand counts measured during Mission 1
- Real weather data up to the current date
- Forecasted weather for the remainder of the season
- Yield impacts from all detected threats across missions
The estimate is not based on a seed’s genetic yield potential. It is based on what is actually happening in that field throughout the season.
4. Does the yield estimate update over time?
Yes. Both yield impact and yield estimate values are refreshed with every mission.
The estimate generally becomes more accurate as the season progresses because early-season projections rely heavily on forecasted weather, which can change over time. As actual weather events occur, forecast assumptions are replaced with real-world conditions, making the estimate more grounded. An estimate from Mission 1 should be viewed as an early-season projection that will continue to improve throughout the year.
5. Is the yield estimate always going to go down over time? Or can it go up?
It can go both ways. The yield estimate doesn't only respond to threats – it also responds to weather and environmental conditions. So if the field has had better-than-average solar radiation, growing degree units, or generally favorable conditions, that can actually push the yield estimate up between missions. It's not a one-way street. That said, if threats are getting worse or weather has been rough, you'd expect to see it trend down.
6. What if I applied a herbicide after Mission 2 because we detected weeds – how would that show up in Mission 3, and does the yield impact just disappear?
This is probably the question we get most often, so let's walk through it. At Mission 3, we fly again and reassess. If we don't detect that weed threat anymore, or we see it's significantly reduced, the yield impact number for weeds gets recalculated based on what we're currently seeing. If the weeds are essentially gone, that weed yield impact could drop all the way to zero. But here's the important nuance: that doesn't mean all traces of the weed issue vanish from the numbers entirely. Depending on how long the weeds were in the field and how severe they were, there may be some lingering impact already baked into the yield estimate – some yield drag already happened, and we don't just erase that from the books. So what you're really seeing is: the future-looking risk is gone, but any losses already realized during the period the weeds were present are still reflected going forward within the yield estimate.
As for the overall yield estimate, it could improve, but it's not guaranteed. There are other factors at play, like whether disease has picked up in the meantime, or whether the weather has been harder than expected. So the short version: treat the weeds, get them under control, and you'll likely see that yield impact number come way down – but keep an eye on the full picture, because other things can still be moving the needle.
7. Can I just track the numbers from mission to mission and do the math myself? For example, Mission 2 showed 190 bu/ac and I had a -4 weed impact, so Mission 3 should be 194 bu/ac if I treated it, correct?
That's a natural assumption, but it won't work that way and we'd actually caution against trying to do it. These numbers aren't a running ledger where you can add and subtract. Between missions, a lot of things are getting recalculated simultaneously – weather conditions, any losses that have already been realized, new threats, forecasting updates. It's not a simple math problem. A better way to think about it: each mission gives you a fresh snapshot of where the field stands right now, not a running tally from where it was before.
8. What if a threat gets worse between missions instead of better – how does that affect things?
If a threat such as weeds increases in severity or spreads further by the next mission, previously projected damage may become realized loss within the yield estimate.
At that point:
- Earlier projected losses are incorporated into the yield estimate as realized damage
- A new yield impact value is calculated to represent the remaining forward-looking risk
This means the estimate reflects both losses that have already occurred and additional risk that still exists if no action is taken.
9. What if I had weed impact detected and then also disease shows up at the next mission – even if my weeds are gone, could my yield estimate still drop?
Absolutely, this is why it's important not to look at any one threat in isolation. Even if your weed issue is resolved and that yield impact goes to zero, if disease has come in and now carries its own yield impact, that new threat will factor into the overall yield estimate. So you could see the yield estimate go down even when you successfully managed one problem, because another one is now pulling it in the other direction.
10. Is this available for all crops?
Taranis Yield ImpactTM is available only for corn this season.
11. How accurate is the yield estimate, really? Should customers trust these numbers?
The numbers are grounded in real training data including actual yield data from John Deere connections, and the model is built on established crop science. While traditional models estimate yield based on environmental assumptions or low-resolution satellite imagery, Taranis Yield Impact™ focuses on the “why” behind yield fluctuations.
The goal of Taranis Yield Impact™ is not to predict harvest down to the bushel – it's to help you understand the relative risk of not acting on a detected threat. Think of it as an economic context tool, not a harvest guarantee. As we collect more yield data throughout this season, the model will continue to improve. If you see something that looks off, please share your feedback with us.
12. Where do I find Taranis Yield Impact™ in the platform?
It has its own dedicated Yield Impact tab at the level of a grower account or profile. To access from the home page, first click “Growers.”
Next, select the “Yield Impact” tab to view Taranis Yield Impact™.
You'll see a table showing the yield estimate for each field along with the yield impact broken out by threat category: weeds, disease, insects, and nutrients, for each field's most recent mission. An average yield estimate across all enrolled cornfields is also displayed at the top. You can also see a yield impact value for each individual threat insight for each mission.
If you're viewing an Ag Assistant™ recommendation card, you'll also see the sum of the yield impacts reflected there, so it connects naturally to the recommendation workflow.